Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 15.494619 18.840121 22.567435 27.004201 32.116648 37.797801 44.562180
2025-04-13 9.584703 13.549948 18.492949 25.004369 33.243549 43.204672 56.028638
2025-04-20 7.236335 11.503414 17.294772 25.504728 36.591565 50.774778 69.983834
2025-04-27 5.774999 10.169295 16.581428 26.237509 39.972472 58.332588 84.175573
2025-05-04 4.783350 9.241472 16.178773 27.184108 43.536749 66.200522 99.110239
2025-05-11 3.948478 8.345859 15.619762 27.728759 46.446404 73.234621 113.208410
2025-05-18 3.167214 7.344598 14.694746 27.525638 48.129830 78.530330 125.066657
2025-05-25 2.449071 6.271343 13.446061 26.592738 48.524278 81.867676 134.188929
2025-06-01 1.967517 5.536402 12.651012 26.273739 49.783356 86.476881 145.302840
2025-06-08 1.497617 4.687774 11.484331 25.129402 49.536631 88.686816 152.851676
2025-06-15 1.298858 4.412848 11.387539 25.887258 52.504606 96.041918 168.519654
2025-06-22 1.021261 3.850840 10.595771 25.226609 52.933041 99.312822 177.951175
2025-06-29 0.896697 3.694556 10.718450 26.490840 57.112891 109.321967 199.128127
2025-07-06 0.609276 2.938447 9.332583 24.551332 55.339796 109.424086 204.641690
2025-07-13 0.500873 2.702708 9.132320 25.046171 58.126458 117.376411 223.259584
2025-07-20 0.420632 2.527795 9.046380 25.768479 61.389735 126.306154 243.861706
2025-07-27 0.360368 2.399891 9.057011 26.701504 65.124710 136.238381 266.536020
2025-08-03 0.298519 2.229051 8.908339 27.238383 68.089752 144.925475 287.427885
2025-08-10 0.230987 1.983345 8.478883 27.038157 69.509543 150.861808 303.814222
2025-08-17 0.165168 1.685460 7.802583 26.118607 69.319882 153.792297 315.059950
2025-08-24 0.124058 1.487235 7.390380 25.804193 70.380055 159.080707 330.622143
2025-08-31 0.083620 1.237595 6.715419 24.676398 69.532111 160.662730 339.602188
2025-09-07 0.069976 1.177068 6.721081 25.423283 72.955156 170.645870 364.085784